Development and temporal validation of a clinical prediction model of transition to psychosis in individuals at ultra-high risk in the UHR 1000 cohort

S Hartmann; D Dwyer; B Cavve; EM Byrne; I Scott; C Gao; C Wannan; HP Yuen; J Hartmann; A Lin; SJ Wood; JTW Wigman; CM Middeldorp; A Thompson; P Amminger; M Schlögelhofer; A Riecher-Rössler; EYH Chen; IB Hickie; LJ Phillips; MR Schäfer; N Mossaheb; S Smesny; G Berger; L de Haan; M Nordentoft; S Verma; DH Nieman; PD McGorry; AR Yung; SR Clark; B Nelson

Journal article

Development and temporal validation of a clinical prediction model of transition to psychosis in individuals at ultra-high risk in the UHR 1000 cohort

S Hartmann, D Dwyer, B Cavve, EM Byrne, I Scott, C Gao, C Wannan, HP Yuen, J Hartmann, A Lin, SJ Wood, JTW Wigman, CM Middeldorp, A Thompson, P Amminger, M Schlögelhofer, A Riecher-Rössler, EYH Chen, IB Hickie, LJ Phillips Show all

World Psychiatry | WILEY | Published : 2024

DOI: 10.1002/wps.21240

Abstract

The concept of ultra-high risk for psychosis (UHR) has been at the forefront of psychiatric research for several decades, with the ultimate goal of preventing the onset of psychotic disorder in high-risk individuals. Orygen (Melbourne, Australia) has led a range of observational and intervention studies in this clinical population. These datasets have now been integrated into the UHR 1000+ cohort, consisting of a sample of 1,245 UHR individuals with a follow-up period ranging from 1 to 16.7 years. This paper describes the cohort, presents a clinical prediction model of transition to psychosis in this cohort, and examines how predictive performance is affected by changes in UHR samples over t..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Dom Dwyer Author

Isabelle Scott Author

Caroline Gao Author

Cassandra Wannan Author

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Grants

Awarded by National Health and Medical Research Council

Funding Acknowledgements

This work was funded through the Prediction of Early Mental Disorder and Preventive Treatment (PRE-EMPT) - National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Centre of Research Excellence (grant no. 1198304). A. Lin was supported by a NHMRC Emerging Leadership Fellowship (no. 2010063); A.R. Yung by an NHMRC Senior Research Fellowship (no. 566593) and Principal Research Fellowship (no. 1136829); P. Amminger by an NHMRC Senior Research Fellowship (no. 1080963); J.T.W. Wigman by a Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) Veni grant (no. 016.156.019). Supplementary information on this study is available at .